What I make of India’s decision to suspend the IWT is less about immediate change and more about long-term leverage. It is, in essence, a strategic geopolitical shift indicating the change in the way we now look at our priorities.
By lifting treaty constraints, we stand to gain strategic flexibility. …. Yes, for the present water will keep flowing across the border—though the rules around it stand changed and India is comfortable as it’s not going to discuss this any further. Pakistan can keep knocking on the doors of various courts of law or arbitration benches … We will not relent and rightfully so unless we see a fundamental shift in the ideological thought process of Pakistan.
For Pakistan …. their nightmare has come true … fear is growing, and in the lull before the storm … they can take some solace as the water is still flowing, but not for long.
How is this shift in Indian strategic thought and action going to hit Pakistan …?
It’s a google-able fact that Pakistan draws about 80 per cent of its freshwater supply from the Indus River System. From a total of 16.8 crore acre-feet (CAF) of water flowing annually, only around 3.3 CAF has been allocated to India, and we do use 90 % of this. On the other hand Pakistan has not created suitable mechanisms to use their share of water and even where they have built some assets these have not been maintained, diminishing their water carrying capacity to a pittance. …. Not to be forgotten that … as per this very IWT India was made to contribute UK Pound Sterling 62,060,000/= (Pound Sterling sixty-two million and sixty thousand or 125 Tons of GOLD …!! ) for what ..? Yes … this was towards the cost of construction of new head-works and canal system for irrigation from the Western Rivers in the Punjab province of Pakistan…. !!! And we paid it in ten equal annual installments despite the 1965 Indo-Pak war…. Just how gullible has been our approach in this business.. and we did this …. When we …. Indians were going hungry and US gave us the famous ‘bakshish’ of PL 480 wheat … yet we gave this money to Pakistan…!! कमाल का restraint !! Wah !!
Anyway, back to the topic .. How will this hit Pakistan …?
Pakistan’s dependence on waters of these rivers is almost total. Today, 80% of its agriculture is dependent on waters of the Indus River System. These rivers also sustain 68 % of Pakistan’s rural population. …!! Just take a minute and absorb these figures and think what this means.
To begin with, even minor disruptions in water availability will create fluctuations in crop production. Their food insecurities will increase impacting existing economic conditions.
Pakistan’s storage capacity compounds its vulnerability. Dams like Mangla and Tarbela can store just 14.4 million acre-feet, which translates to only 10% of its annual entitlement. In dry years or during seasonal shifts, Pakistan has little cushion to manage shortages.
The stakes are high for Pakistan. Its agriculture, power, and rural livelihoods are going to come under extreme stress, a stress which they have never imagined …. Because availability of water and India’s soft stand was always taken as granted. …. !!
To add to this …. When rivers start running dry farmers will tap deeper aquifers, worsening land salinisation and aquifer depletion. Less water will start the process of desertification, less water will also result in less power …. Their dams (Mangla and Tarbela) produce about 30% of power requirement today .. this will surely fall. Their exports will fall … as the jewel in the crown ‘Basmati Rice’ will surely become extinct.
All of ibid, and more; Pakistan can ill afford these catastrophic ‘hits’ … and that’s why this is a good strategic decision. … yes, the revocation of the IWT is less about immediate change and more about long-term leverage. It is, in essence, a strategic geopolitical master strike … with far reaching consequences than what one can imagine or a Kinetic Strike would have yielded. Yes, the kinetic stuff has its own importance and may happen in due course .. but for the time being this is enough for the Pakis to chew on.
Maj Gen Deepak Saini, Veteran
sainideepak@hotmail.com
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